Thesis monitoring for serious investors

Know when your thesis breaks.

Enter your investment thesis. Vela structures it into testable assumptions, monitors them against live signals, and tells you when your reasoning no longer holds.

The 30-second thesis structuring

You write the thesis. Vela does the rest.

Enter your conviction in plain language. In 30 seconds, Vela decomposes it into structured assumptions, sensitivity drivers, scenarios, weak points, and break triggers.

Your thesis

"I am long $LNG because natural gas demand will grow as AI data centers need power, and nobody is building their own gas infrastructure. I expect 15-20% revenue growth for the next 3 years. Management's $9B buyback signals confidence."

Vela structures it
Assumption Map
01AI data center buildout drives sustained gas demand growth
02No viable alternative to natural gas for baseload power at scale
03LNG export capacity constraints create pricing power
04Revenue growth of 15-20% annually for 3 years
05$9B buyback signals confidence in cash flow durability
Thesis Break Triggers
Hyperscaler capex cuts >15% from 2+ of big four
Revenue growth below 10% for two consecutive quarters
Insider selling exceeds $100M in rolling 6 months
Natural gas spot below $2/MMBtu sustained
Daily thesis briefing

Every morning, organized by thesis.

Not "NVDA is down 4%." Instead: "your assumption about data center capex growth was contradicted." Vela monitors your reasoning, not just your stocks.

Tuesday, March 4, 2026 · 7:04 AMThesis weakening
Long $LNG — Cheniere Energy
Thesis health: 78/100 (down from 82 last week)
Weakened

Driver #1: Hyperscaler capex trajectory

Microsoft Q4 earnings call: CFO signaled "moderation in the pace of data center investment" starting H2 2026. This is the first of the big four to suggest a slowdown. Your thesis depends on all four maintaining or accelerating spend.

Strengthened

Driver #3: LNG export capacity constraints

DOE monthly data: US LNG exports hit record 13.2 Bcf/d. Capacity utilization at 98%. Supports pricing power thesis.

Reminder set to review GOOG earnings (March 12) and AMZN earnings (March 18).
How it works

Your thesis becomes a living system.

The system learns how you see and evaluate the market, and does it for you, following your rules and mindset.

01

Enter your thesis

Write it in plain language or use the guided input. "I am long LNG because..." Vela takes it from there.

02

Vela structures it

In 30 seconds: structured assumptions, sensitivity drivers ranked, scenario grid, identified weak points, metrics to watch, and thesis break triggers. Edit any component.

03

Set your rules

Codify how you invest. "I ignore short-term guidance noise." "I weight insider selling heavily." Vela enforces your principles across every thesis.

04

Vela monitors daily

Six signal types mapped to your specific assumptions. Earnings transcripts, SEC filings, news, market data, social sentiment, macro indicators. Every day.

05

Your decision infrastructure compounds

Every thesis, every signal, every decision, every outcome gets recorded. Over time, Vela identifies patterns: "The last three times you saw this, you held and lost 11%."

What Vela monitors

Six signal types. Mapped to your thesis.

Other tools show you everything. Vela shows you what matters to your assumptions.

01 · Market Data

Prices & fundamentals

Real-time prices, volume anomalies, P/E shifts, earnings yield vs. treasury spread. Mapped to your valuation assumptions.

02 · SEC Filings

10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, Form 4

Reads the full filing. Flags insider transactions, accounting changes, risk factor updates that map to your thesis drivers.

03 · Earnings

Transcript analysis

Reads the actual transcript. Detects tone shifts, hedging language, guidance changes. Maps CFO commentary to your assumptions.

04 · News

Filtered, ranked

50+ sources, filtered to your theses, ranked by assumption impact. Not what happened. Whether it matters to your reasoning.

05 · Social

Reddit & X sentiment

Mentions, sentiment, velocity across investing communities. Tracks narrative shifts that could signal thesis-relevant momentum changes.

06 · Macro

Rates, CPI, GDP

Fed decisions, economic data, yield curve shifts. Chains reasoning from macro data to your specific thesis assumptions.

How Vela is different

They monitor stocks. We monitor your reasoning.

vs every portfolio tracker

Thesis-level, not stock-level

They tell you "NVDA is down 4%." Vela tells you "your assumption about data center capex growth was contradicted by the earnings call."

vs AI chat tools

Proactive, not reactive

Chat tools wait for you to ask the right question. Vela evaluates your assumptions against new data every day, whether you ask or not.

vs research platforms

Monitors after you buy, not just before

FinChat and Seeking Alpha help you build the thesis. Nobody watches it after. Vela monitors your assumptions continuously.

vs your spreadsheet

Your thesis deserves a system

A spreadsheet cannot read an earnings transcript and tell you if the CFO contradicted assumption #3. Vela can. Every day.

Know when your thesis breaks.

Founding members get lifetime pricing when we launch.

Information only. We don't manage money or make trades.

FAQ

Common questions

You enter your investment thesis in plain language. Vela decomposes it into structured assumptions, sensitivity drivers, and break triggers. It then monitors earnings transcripts, SEC filings, news, market data, social sentiment, and macro indicators — and tells you when new information strengthens, weakens, or contradicts your assumptions.

No. Core value (thesis structuring and monitoring) works without any connection. Connecting your brokerage via Plaid is optional and adds activity monitoring and decision tracking. We use read-only access; we never see your password or place trades.

They tell you "NVDA is down 4%." Vela tells you "your assumption about data center capex growth was contradicted by the earnings call." We monitor your reasoning at the thesis level, not just stock prices.

Chat tools are reactive — you have to ask the right question. Vela proactively evaluates your assumptions against new data every day and delivers a daily briefing organized by thesis, whether you ask or not.

No. We provide information and analysis only. We don't recommend buys or sells. We help you know when your thesis is strengthening or weakening; you make your own decisions.

We're in private waitlist. Join to get early access and founding member pricing when we launch.